Источники и  последствия «технологической стагнации» глобальной экономики

Александр Андреевич Мальцев

Александр Андреевич Мальцев Уральский государственный экономический университет, Российская Федерация, 620144, Екатеринбург, ул. 8 Марта/Народной Воли, 62/45

Аннотация

В статье предпринята попытка показать взаимосвязь между технологической стагнацией и кризисными моментами в развитии современной мировой экономики. Основное внимание сосредоточено на выявлении первопричин инновационной паузы. Анализ показал, что технологическая стагнация вызвана стечением целого ряда мирохозяйственных обстоятельств, в совокупности оказавших дестимулирующее воздействие на технологический прогресс. Главным из них стала интеграция в мировую экономику трудоизбыточных развивающихся рынков, спровоцировавших снижение капиталонасыщенности. В результате глобальный бизнес предпочел переориентировать инновационный процесс на создание «улучшающих» нововведений, не способных обеспечить рост доходов широких слоев населения и увеличение производительности труда. К важнейшим последствиям инновационной паузы отнесены деиндустриализация хозяйственных систем развитых стран и вызванная переходом к финансиализированной модели хозяйствования эрозия государств всеобщего благоденствия. Доказано прочное укоренение парадигмы «запланированного устаревания» и феномена «микроволновой ментальности» как следствие затягивания инновационной паузы. Библиогр. 115 назв.

Ключевые слова:

государство всеобщего благоденствия, деиндустриализация, контролируемое устаревание, технологический тупик, финансиализация

Скачивания

Данные скачивания пока недоступны.

Биография автора

Александр Андреевич Мальцев, Уральский государственный экономический университет, Российская Федерация, 620144, Екатеринбург, ул. 8 Марта/Народной Воли, 62/45

кандидат экономических наук, доцент

Литература

Литература на русском языке

Бляхман Л. С. Глобальный кризис и смена парадигмы хозяйственного развития // Вестн. С.-Петерб. ун-та. Сер. 5. Экономика. 2013. Вып. 2. С. 3–22.

Бузгалин А., Колганов А. Мировой экономический кризис и сценарии посткризисного развития: марксистский анализ // Вопросы экономики. 2009. № 1. С. 119–132.

Глазьев С. Мировой экономический кризис как процесс смены технологических укладов // Вопросы экономики. 2009. № 3. С. 26–38.

Дзарасов Р. С. Национальный капитализм: развитие или насаждение отсталости? // Альтернативы. 2013. № 2. С. 58–66.

Дзарасов Р. С. Экономика «насаждения отсталости». К действительным причинам реформы РАН // Вестник Российской академии наук. 2014. Т. 84, № 4. С. 291–304.

Иноземцев В. Л. Воссоздание индустриального мира : контуры нового глобального устройства // Россия в глобальной политике. 2011. Т. 9, № 6. С. 85–98.

Кругман П. Кредо либерала. М.: Издательство «Европа», 2009. 368 с.

Лукашевич В. В., Сутырин С. Ф. Глобальный финансово-экономический кризис: причины и последствия // Вестн. С.-Петерб. ун-та. Сер. 5. Экономика. 2009. Вып. 3. С. 3–11.

Мау В. Россия в поисках новой модели роста // Вестник Европы. 2012. № XXXIII. С. 34–48.

Полтерович В. Гипотеза об инновационной паузе и стратегия модернизации // Вопросы экономики. 2009. № 6. С. 4–23.

Привалов А. О моде на спецоперации // Эксперт. 2013. № 38. С. 10.

Рязанов В. Т. Неустойчивый экономический рост как «новая нормальность»? // Вестн. С.-Петерб. ун-та. Сер. 5. Экономика. 2013. Вып. 4. С. 3–35.

«Хорошее общество»: социальное конструирование приемлемого для жизни общества. М.: Институт философии РАН, 2003. 182 с.

Худокормов А. Г. Экономическая теория: новейшие течения Запада. М.: ИНФР-М, 2010. 416 с.

Шарапов С., Улыбышева М. Одноразовая жизнь // Эксперт. 2013. № 36. С. 74–76.

References in Latin Alphabet

2008 Report to the Congress of the U. S. — China Economic and Security Review Commission. Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office, 2008. 382 p.

Abbas S. A. et al. A Historical Public Debt Database // IMF Working Paper. 2010. N 10/245. 26 p.

Ahearne A., Wolff G. B. The Debt Challenge in Europe // Bruegel Working Paper. 2012. N 2. 25 p.

Alvarez R., Claro S. The China Phenomenon: Price, Quality or Variety? [Electronic resource]. URL: www.bcentral.cl/conferencias-seminarios/seminarios/pdf/Th eChinaPhenomenon.pdf (accessed: 07.05.2014).

An Overview of Growing Income Inequalities in OECD Countries : Main Figures [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.oecd.org/els/soc/49499779.pdf (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Assa J. Financialization and Its Consequences: the OECD Experience // Finance Research. 2012. Vol. 1, N 1. P. 35–39.

Atkinson R. D., Stewart L. A., Andes S. M., Ezell S. J. Worse than the Great Depression: What Experts Are Missing about American Manufacturing Decline. ITIF, 2012. March. 77 p.

Baaquie B. E. Interest Rates and Coupon Bonds in Quantum Finance. Cambridge University Press, 2010. 508 p.

Bank S. A. The Globalization of Corporate Tax Reform // Symposium: Tax Advice for the Second Obama Administration. 2013. Vol. 40, Is. 5. P. 1307–1328.

Bartels B. et al. Strategies to the Prediction, Mitigation, and Management of Controlled Obsolescence. Hoboken: John Willey & Sons, 2012. 288 p.

Bojer H. Distributional Justice: Theory and Measurement. London; New York: Routledge, 2003. 168 p.

Boradkar P. Designing Things : A Critical Introduction to the Culture of Objects. Oxford: Berg, 2010. 320 p.

Broad W. J. With the Shuttle Program Ending, Fears of Decline at NASA // The New York Times. 2011. July 3.

Cecchetti S. G., Kharroubi E. Reassessing the Impact of Finance on Growth [Electronic resource]. URL: http://sirc.rbi.org.in/downloads/4Cecchetti.pdf (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Cecchetti S. G., Mohanty M. S., Zampolli F. Th e Real Eff ects of Debt // BIS Working Paper. 2011. N 352. 33 p.

Chang K. Obama Calls for End to NASA’s Moon Program // The New York Times. 2010. February 1. Changing Patterns of Pharmaceutical Innovation. NIHCM Foundation, 2002. May.

Chan-Lee J. H., Sutch H. Profi ts and Rates of Return [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.oecd.org/eco/growth/35485300.pdf (accessed: 07.05.2014).

China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves, 1977–2011 [Electronic resource]. URL: www.chinability.com /Reserves.htm (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Clements B. et al. Th e Challenge of Public Pension Reforms in Advanced and Emerging Countries // IMF Occasional Paper. 2012. No 275. 86 p.

Cohen D. Th ree Lectures on Post-Industrial Society. Cambridge, МА: MIT Press, 2009. 120 p.

Cohen N. Immigration Is Not a Drain on Public Coff ers, OECD Report Shows // Financial Times. 2013. June 13.

Cole L. Communication in Poultry Grower Relations. Ames: Iowa State University Press, 2000. 243 p.

Cooper T. Sustainability, Consumption and the Th rowaway Culture // Th e Handbook of Design for Sustainability / eds S. Walker, J. Giard. London; New York: Bloomsbury, 2013. 576 p.

Dahlstrom L. How the Neoliberal Berserk Fury Destroys the Welfare Sector — the Case of Sweden [Electronic resource]. URL: http://globalsouthnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/12-How-the-neoliberalberserk-fury-destroys-the-welfare-sector-the-case-of-Sweden.docx (accessed: 07.05.2014).

David P. A. Th e Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective of the Modern Productivity Paradox // American Economic Review (AEA) Papers and Proceedings. 1990. Vol. 80, N 2. P. 355–361.

Decline of the Middle Class [Electronic resource]. URL: www.deutschland.de/en/news/decline-of-themiddle-class (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Drucker M. Adjusting to Incremental Innovation Portfolios: Avoiding the Erosion of Company Profits and Market Position [Electronic resource]. URL: www.rdinsights.com/adjusting-to-incremental-innovationportfolios-avoiding-the-erosion-of-company-profi ts-and-market-position-2 (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Dutch King Willem-Alexander Declares the End of the Welfare State [Electronic resource]. URL: www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/dutch-king-willemalexander-declares-the-end-of-the-welfarestate-8822421.html (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Economic Report of the President. Washington: U. S. Government Printing Office, 2013. 452 p.

Elsby M. W., Hobijn B., Şahin A. Th e Decline of the U. S. Labor Share. Final Conference Draft to be Presented at the Fall 2013. Brookings Panel on Economic Activity. 2013. September 19–20.

Epstein G. A. Introduction: Financialization and the World Economy // Financialization and the World Economy / ed. by G. A. Epstein. Northampton: Edward Elgar, 2005. 456 p.

Flood M. D. Two Faces of Financial Innovations // Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. 1992. Vol. 74, N 5. P. 3–17.

Flowers A. The Productivity Paradox: Is Technology Failing or Fueling Growth? [Electronic resource]. URL: http://eml.berkeley.edu/users/eichengr/bellagio/productivity_paradox.pdf (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Freeman R. The Great Doubling : Th e Challenge of the New Global Labor Market [Electronic resource]. URL: http://emlab.berkeley.edu/users/webfac/eichengreen/e183_sp07/great_doub.pdf (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Geim A. Be Afraid, Very Afraid of the Tech Crisis // Financial Times. 2013. February 5.

Gertner J. Does America Need Manufacturing? // Th e New York Times. 2011. August 24.

Girouard N., Kennedy M., Andre C. Has the Rise in Debt Made Households More Vulnerable // ECO Working Paper. 2007. N 535. 39 p.

Golkany I. M. Discounting Future // Regulation. 2009. Spring.

Gordon R. J. Is U. S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds // NBER Working Paper Series. 2012. N 18315. 23 p.

Gordon R. J. Revisiting U. S. Productivity Growth Over the Past Century With a View of the Future // NBER Working Paper. 2010. N 15834. 44 p.

Griswold D. T. Immigration and the Welfare State // Cato Journal. 2012. Vol. 32, N 1. P. 159–174.

Gruber G., Wise D. A. An International Perspective on Polices for an Aging Society // Policies for an Aging Society / eds S. H. Altman, D. I. Shactman. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 2002. 424 p.

Habakkuk H. J. American and British Technology in the Nineteenth Century. Cambridge University Press, 1962. 240 p.

Hassett K. Obama’s Obsession Drives Progress in Reverse [Electronic resource]. URL: www.bloom berg.com/news/2010–08–16/obama-s-obsession-drives-progress-in-reverse-commentary-by-kevin-hassett.html (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Higher Education in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) Subjects. London: The Stationary Office, 2012. 117 p.

Huebner J. A Possible Declining Trend for Worldwide Innovation // Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 2005. Vol. 72. P. 980–986.

Immigrations Economic Impact [Electronic resource]. URL: http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archi ves.gov/cea/cea_immigration_062007.html (accessed: 07.05.2014).

International Mobility of Highly Skilled Workers: A Synthesis of Key Findings and Policy Implications [Electronic resource]. URL: www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/eas-aes.nsf /eng/ra02037.html (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Johnson S., Kwak J. 13 Bankers: The Walt Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown. New York: Pantheon Books, 2010. 336 p.

Kardar S. E. Antibiotic Resistance: New Approaches to a Historical Problem [Electronic resource]. URL: www.actionbioscience.org/newfrontiers/kardar.html (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Keller S. Welfarism // Philosophy Compass. 2009. N 4/1. P. 82–95.

Kenny C. What’s Wrong With China Trade? Ask the Candidates [Electronic resource]. URL: www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-10-15/what-s-wrong-with-china-trade-ask-the-candidates (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Krugman P. Making Th ings in America // The New York Times. 2011. May 19.

Krugman P. Money for Nothing // The New York Times. 2009. April 26.

Krugman P. The ICT Revolution Isn’t Over // The New York Times. 2013. October 11.

Kurzweil R. The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. New York: Viking, 2005. 672 p.

Lawrence R. Z., Edwards L. U. S. Employment Deindustrialization : Insights from History and the International Experience // Policy Brief. 2013. N PB 13–27. 14 p.

Lichtenberg F. R. The Effect of Pharmaceutical Innovation on Longevity: Patient-Level Evidence From the 1996–2002 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and Linked Mortality Public-Use Files // NBER Working Paper. 2012. N 18552. 36 p.

London B. Ending the Depression Through Planned Obsolescence [Electronic resource]. URL: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/27/London_(1932)_Ending_the_de pression_through_planned_obsolescence.pdf (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Martin J., Ruark E. A. The Fiscal Burden of Illegal Immigration on United States Tax Payers. Washington, D. C.: Federation for American Immigration Reform, 2010. 95 p.

Mees H. Changing Fortunes: How China’s Boom Caused the Financial Crisis. Rotterdam: Erasmus University, 2012. 159 p.

Mensch G. Stalemate in Technology: Innovations Overcome the Depression. Cambridge, МА: Ballinger Publications, 1979. 241 p.

Microwave society [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Microwave%20Society (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Mishel L., Gee K.-F. Why Aren’t Workers Benefiting From Labour Productivity Growth in the United States // International Productivity Monitor. 2012. N 23. P. 31–43.

Mokyr J. Is Technological Progress a Thing of the Past? [Electronic resource]. URL: www.voxeu.org /article/technological-progress-thing-past (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Mokyr J. Technopessimism Is Bunk [Electronic resource]. URL: www.pbs.org/newshour/businessdesk/2013/07/technopessimism-is-bunk.html (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Nolan P. Is China Buying the World? Cambridge: Polity Press, 2012. 120 p.

OECD Employment Outlook 2001. Paris: OECD, 2001. 244 p.

OECD Factbook 2009. Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics. Paris: OECD, 2009.

OECD Members — Age Dependency Ratio [Electronic resource]. URL: www.indexmundi.com/facts/oecdmembers/age-dependency-ratio (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Okpara F. O. The Value of Creativity and Innovation in Entrepreneurship // Journal of Asia Entrepreneurship and Sustainability. 2007. Vol. III, Is. 2. P. 1–14.

Orlik T., Davis B. Beijing Diversifi es Away From U. S. Dollar [Electronic resource]. URL: http:// online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052970203753704577254794068655760 (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Palan R., Murphy R., Chavagneux C. Tax Havens: How Globalization Really Works. New York: Cornell University Press, 2010. 280 p.

Palley T. I. Financialization: What It Is and What It Matters // PERI Working Paper Series. 2007. N 153. 31 p.

Palley T. I. From Financial Crisis to Stagnation: The Destruction of Shared Prosperity and the Role of Economics. Cambridge University Press, 2012. 258 p.

Pentkantchin V. The Advantages of Incremental Pharmaceutical Innovation [Electronic resource]. URL: www.institutmolinari.org/IMG/pdf/note0412_en.pdf (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Phillips K. American Theocracy: The Peril and Politics of Radical Religion, Oil and Borrowed Money in the 21st Century. NewYork: Viking, 2006. 512 p.

Prius Outdoes Hummer in Environmental Damage [Electronic resource]. URL: www.ncpa.org/sub /dpd/index.php?Article_ID=14304 (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Public Debt As a Percentage of GDP in Countries Around the World [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.gfmag.com/component/content/article/119-economic-data/12370-public-debt-percentage-gdp.html axzz2kMYKJ2Rd (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Razin A., Sadka E., Suwankiri B. Migration and the Welfare State : Political Economy Policy Formation. Cambridge, МА: MIT Press, 2011. 184 p.

Receipts by Source as Percentages of Gross Domestic Product: 1934–2019 [Electronic resource]. URL: www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/Content/PDF/hist_receipt_source_GDP. pdf (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Rector R. The Fiscal Cost of Low-Skill Immigrants to State and Local Taxpayers. Washington: The Heritage Foundation, 2007.

Roth A., Sneader K. Reinventing Innovation at Consumer Goods Companies // McKinsey Quarterly. 2006. November. 7 p.

Segal G. Does China Matter [Electronic resource]. URL: www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/55401/gerald-segal/does-china-matter (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Shackleton R. Total Factor Productivity Growth in Historical Perspective // Congressional Budget Office Working Paper Series. 2013. N 2013–01. 19 p.

Sinn H.-W. Casino Capitalism : How the Financial Crisis Came About and What Needs to Be Done Now. Oxford University Press, 2010. 304 p.

Solow R. How to Save American Finance from Itself : Has Financialization Gone too Far? [Electronic resource]. URL: www.newrepublic.com/article/112679/how-save-american-fi nance-itself (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Spence M., Hlatshwayo S. The Evolving Structure of the American Economy and the Employment Challenge // CFR Working Paper. 2011. March. 53 p.

Stewart L. A., Atkinson R. D. Restoring America’s Lagging Investment in Capital Goods. The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation Report. 2013. October. 39 p.

Stiglitz J. E. Freefall: America, Free Markets, and the Sinking of the World Economy. London; New York: W. W. Norton & Co., 2010. 480 p.

Stiglitz J. E. The Book of Jobs [Electronic resource]. URL: www.vanityfair.com/politics/2012/01/ stiglitzdepression-201201?wpisrc=nl_wonk (accessed: 07.05.2014).

The New Global Shift [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2003-02-02/thenew-global-job-shift (accessed: 07.05.2014).

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): Revenue Statistics Tax Ratios between 1965 and 2010 [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.oecd.org/ctp/tax-policy/table2.xls (accessed: 07.05.2014).

US Suspends Financing for 2008 — But Will Not Quit ITER [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.energyenviro.com/index.php?PAGE=1407&NODE_ID=1407& LANG=1 (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Van Noorden R. Global Mobility: Science on the Move [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.nature.com/news/global-mobility-science-on-the-move-1.11602 (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Vijg J. Th e American Technological Challenge: Stagnation and Decline in the 21st Century. New York: Agora Publishing, 2011. 260 p.

Wade R. Inequality and the West // Inequality: A New Zealand Crisis / ed. by M. Rashbrooke. Wellington: Bridget Books, 2013. 391 p.

Westera W. The Digital Turn: How the Internet Transforms Our Existence. Bloomington: Author House, 2013. 310 p.

Zaccone J. Has Globalization Destroyed the American Middle Class? [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.njfac.org/GloblMClass.pdf (accessed: 07.05.2014).

Translation of references in Russian into English