The effect of sanctions on Russian agricultural imports
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2020.405Abstract
This paper contributes to the methodology of trade policy analysis, specifically to the assessments of non -tariff measures. To quantifying the effects of these measures, the proportion between the variables of two gravity equations, describing the situation before and after the embargo is used. The ratio of imports per unit of the supplier’s GDP over the two compared periods (2013 and 2017) is different for two groups of trade partners, one of which includes free-trade partners while the other spans the rest of the world (with some exceptions). In the presence of the embargo the gap in the average imports per unit of the supplier’s GDP between the two groups is wider. This is a consequence of the emergence of a new trade barrier. This gap allows us to indirectly quantify the trade bans via their tariff equivalent. In this study the methodology is applied to the case of food and agricultural imports. Fish, as well as other products outside chapters 1–24 of Harmonized commodity description and coding system, are excluded. The hypothesis of the study is that the impact of the embargo on the food and agricultural imports does not exceed that of tariff and phytosanitary measures. The study rejects this hypothesis and concludes that the embargo establishes a prohibitive level of protection.
Keywords:
special economic measure, food embargo, international trade, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, tariff equivalent, indirect estimation
Downloads
References
References:
Askari H. and others (2003) Case Studies of U. S. Economic Sanctions: The Chinese, Cuban, Iranian Experiences. Praeger, ABC-CLIO. 304 p.
Bora B. (2005) “The Quantification and Impact of Non-Tariff Measures” in Dee F. and Ferrantino M. (eds) The Effects of Non-Tariff Measures and Trade Facilitation. APEC Secretariat and World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. 674 p.
Chaney T. (2018) The Gravity Equation in International Trade: An Explanation. Journal of Political Economy, vol. 126(1), pp. 150–177.
Czaga P. (2005) OECD “Trade Policy Studies.The Role of Non-Tariff Barriers in World Trade” in Looking Beyond Tariffs. Import Prohibitions and Quotas. Paris, OECD Trade Policy Studies, OECD Publishing.304 p. URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264014626-en (accessed: 29.12.2019)
Deardorff A., Stern M. (1998) Measurement of Nontariff Barriers. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.152 p.
Dee P., Ferrantino M. (2005) “Introduction” in Dee F. and Ferrantino M. (eds) The Effects of Non-Tariff Measures and Trade Facilitation. APEC Secretariat and World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. 674 p.
Disdier A., Keith H. (2008) The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade. The Review of Economics and statistics, no. 90, pp. 37–48.
Evenett S. (2002) The Impact of Economic Sanctions on South African Exports. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, vol. 49, no. 5, pp. 557–573.
EvenettS., Keller W. (1998) On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation. NBER working paper 6529. Cambridge, National Bureau of Economic Research. 53 p. URL: https://www.nber.org/papers/w6529.pdf (accessed: 29.12.2019).
Head K., Mayer T. (2013) Gravity Equations: Workhorse, Toolkit and Cookbook. CEPII Working Paper,no. 27. 70 p. URL:http://www.cepii.fr/pdf_pub/wp/2013/wp2013-27.pdf (accessed: 29.12.2019).
Helpman E. (2017) Understanding Global Trade. Moscow, University of Gaidar Institute. 312 p.
Herrmann-Pillath C. (2006) The True Story of Wine and Cloth, or: Building Blocks of an Evolutionary Political Economy of International Trade. J. Evol. Econ., no. 16, pp. 383–417.
Hoekman B. (1995) “Assessing the General Agreement on Trade in Services” in Martin W. and Winters L. (eds.) The Uruguay round and the developing economies. World Bank Discussion Paper. Washington, The Word Bank. 480 p. URL: http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/pt/644371468766802486/ pdf/multi0page.pdf (accessed: 29.12.2019).
Hufbauer G., Schott J., Elliott K., Oegg B. (2009) Economic Sanctions Reconsidered. Third Edition. Washington, Peterson Institute of International Economics. 248 p.
International trade and development. (2019) United Nations Documents. Report of the Secretary-General. New York, UN. URL:https://undocs.org/A/74/221 (accessed: 29.12.2019).
Kutlina-Dimitrova Z. (2015) The Economic Impact of the Russian Import Ban: a CGE Analysis. Trade. Chief economist note, iss. 3. 23 p. URL: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2015/december/tradoc_154025.pdf (accessed: 29.12.2019).
Livshitz V., Livshitz S. (2011) Systems Analysis of Russia‘s Non-Stationary Economy (1992–2010): Market Reforms, Crisis, Investment Policy. 2nd ed. Moscow, Maroseyka. 510 p.
Mayer T., Zignago S. (2005) Market Access in Global and regional Trade. CEPII Working paper 2. URL: http://www.mafhoum.com/press8/236E14.pdf (accessed: 29.12.2019).
Mitsuyo A. (2005) “Estimating Tariff Equivalents of Core and Non-Core Non-Tariff Measures in the APEC Member Economies” in Dee F. and Ferrantino M (eds) The Effects of Non-Tariff Measures and Trade Facilitation. APEC Secretariat and World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. 674 p.
Oranen T. (2017) Russian Counter-sanctions and Trade Deflection: Evidence from Finland. Master’s essay (First year). Lund, Department of Economics Lund University. URL: http://lup.lub.lu.se/luur/download?func=downloadFile&recordOId=8928030&fileOId=8928031 (accessed: 29.12.2019).
Presidential Decree from August 6, 2014, N 560 (2014) On the application of certain special economic measures to ensure the security of the Russian Federation Rossiyskaya gazeta. No. 176(6448). URL: https:// rg.ru/2014/08/07/sankcii-dok.html (accessed: 29.12.2019).
Rasoulinezhad E. (2016) Investigation of Sanctions and Oil Price Effects on the Iran-Russia. Trade by Using the Gravity Model. Bulletin of the St. Petersburg University. Economy, series 5, iss. 2, pp. 68–84.
Rauch F. (2016) The Geometry of the Distance Coefficient in Gravity Equations in International Trade. Review of International Economics, vol. 24, iss. 5, pp. 1167–1177.
Review of agri-food trade policy in post-Soviet countries 2016–2017. (2018). Rome, FAO. 148 p. URL: http://www.fao.org/3/I9313RU/i9313ru.pdf (accessed: 29.12.2019).
Serrano R., Pinilla V. (2012) The Long-Run Decline in the Share of Agricultural and Food Products in International Trade: a Gravity Equation Approach to its Causes. Applied Economics, vol. 44, iss. 32, pp. 4199–4210.
Tinbergen J. (1962) Shaping the World Economy. New York, Twentieth Century Fund. 330 p.
Traekorova E., Pelevina K. (2014) Gravity model of BRICS’s foreign trade. Journal of Saratov University, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 133–142.
The Legal Texts. The Resultsof the Uruguay Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations. (1999) World Trade Organization New York, Cambridge University Press. 660 p.
UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. Trade Statistics in Policymaking. (2009) A Handbook of Commonly Used Trade Indices and Indicators. Revised Edition. URL: https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/0%20%20Full%20Report_27.pdf (accessed: 29.12.2019).
Zhiryaeva E. (2018) Regulation of Foreign Economic Activity at the Regional Level in Global Conditions of the WTO. The abstract of the thesis for a degree of the Doctor of Economics. St. Petersburg, Saint-Petersburg State University. 39 p. URL: https://disser.spbu.ru/files/disser2/1586/aftoreferat/ BzvY3G3YCY.pdf (accessed: 29.12.2019).
Zhiryaeva E., Naumov V. (2018) Global and local Trade Streams Assessment in the Subjects of the Northwestern Federal District Trade. Management Consulting, no. 5, pp. 113–129. URL: https://www.acjournal.ru/jour/article/view/863/858 (accessed: 29.12.2019).
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Articles of the St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies are open access distributed under the terms of the License Agreement with Saint Petersburg State University, which permits to the authors unrestricted distribution and self-archiving free of charge.
