The Slow Motion Train Crash of the Eurozone Monetary Alchemy

  • Miroslav Jovanović Центр передового Европейского опыта Душана Сиджана и школа Бизнеса Нови Сада, Институт глобальных исследований, Университет Женевы

Аннотация

Статья посвящена рассмотрению проблем, касающихся заведомо проигрышной вой­ ны за спасение еврозоны в долгосрочной перспективе. Еврозона, главное достижение Европейского союза, теряет свой лоск и рискует утратить привлекательность в силу того, что для каждого участника перестает быть гарантией вечного процветания. Архитектура еврозоны построена на фундаменте, который готов рухнуть. Различные ме-роприятия, такие как количественное смягчение, не смогли ускорить экономический рост, что спасло бы от экономических проблем. Для долгосрочного будущего еврозоны необходимы глубокие реформы федерального типа. Перед политиками стоят как минимум две задачи по ее сохранению: во-первых, смягчить бюджетную политику и изменить мандат Европейского центрального банка, чтобы добиться экономического роста и повышения занятости и снизить инфляцию; во-вторых, ввести запоздалые федеральные инструменты, такие как автоматические стабилизаторы (трансферы), налоговые и банковские объединения, систему управления дефолтом, простые облигации и механизмы урегулирования споров. Это серьезная цель, достижению которой мешают политические барьеры. В случае распада еврозоны конец света не наступит — Евросоюз вернется на этап развития 1992 г. Необходимо подготовить Европу к периоду постеврозоны.

Ключевые слова:

еврозона, денежная интеграция, оптимальная валютная зона, количественное смягчение, эффект Кантильона, Тройка, золото, распад

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Литература


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Опубликован
2019-12-06
Как цитировать
Jovanović, M. (2019). The Slow Motion Train Crash of the Eurozone Monetary Alchemy. Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Экономика, 35(3), 360-396. https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2019.303
Раздел
Мировая экономика и международные финансы