The Slow Motion Train Crash of the Eurozone Monetary Alchemy

Авторы

  • Miroslav Jovanović Центр передового Европейского опыта Душана Сиджана и школа Бизнеса Нови Сада, Институт глобальных исследований, Университет Женевы

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2019.303

Аннотация

Статья посвящена рассмотрению проблем, касающихся заведомо проигрышной вой­ ны за спасение еврозоны в долгосрочной перспективе. Еврозона, главное достижение Европейского союза, теряет свой лоск и рискует утратить привлекательность в силу того, что для каждого участника перестает быть гарантией вечного процветания. Архитектура еврозоны построена на фундаменте, который готов рухнуть. Различные ме-роприятия, такие как количественное смягчение, не смогли ускорить экономический рост, что спасло бы от экономических проблем. Для долгосрочного будущего еврозоны необходимы глубокие реформы федерального типа. Перед политиками стоят как минимум две задачи по ее сохранению: во-первых, смягчить бюджетную политику и изменить мандат Европейского центрального банка, чтобы добиться экономического роста и повышения занятости и снизить инфляцию; во-вторых, ввести запоздалые федеральные инструменты, такие как автоматические стабилизаторы (трансферы), налоговые и банковские объединения, систему управления дефолтом, простые облигации и механизмы урегулирования споров. Это серьезная цель, достижению которой мешают политические барьеры. В случае распада еврозоны конец света не наступит — Евросоюз вернется на этап развития 1992 г. Необходимо подготовить Европу к периоду постеврозоны.

Ключевые слова:

еврозона, денежная интеграция, оптимальная валютная зона, количественное смягчение, эффект Кантильона, Тройка, золото, распад

Скачивания

Данные скачивания пока недоступны.
 

Библиографические ссылки


References in Latin Alphabet

Bagnai A., Granville B., Mongeau Ospina С. (2017) Withdrawal of Italy from the euro area: stochastics simulations of a structural macroeconomic model. Economic Modelling, vol. 64(C), pp. 524–538.

Bayer C., Kim С., Kriwoluzky A. (2018) Measuring the risk of a euro area breakup, VOX, 6 September.

Available at: URL: https://voxeu.org/article/measuring-risk-euro-area-breakup (accessed: 23.07.18).

Bibow J. (2018) Twenty years of the German euro are more than enough. Levy Economics Institute. Working Paper, no. 911 Available at: URL: http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_911.pdf (accessed: 23.07.18).

Bordo M., Jonung L. (1999) The future of the EMU: what does the history of monetary unions tell us? NBER Working Paper, no. 7365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.

Box G., Draper N. (1987) Empirical Model-Building and Response Surfaces. New York: John Wiley. 688 p.

Cantillon R. (1755) [1730] Essai sur la Nature du Commerce en Général (Essay on the Nature of Trade in General). Available at: http://la.utexas.edu/users/hcleaver/368/368cantillonessaytable.pdf (accessed: 08.02.2019).

Collier P. (2018) The downside of globalisation. World Economy, vol. 41, iss. 4, pp. 967–974.

Dehousse R. (2018) The euro crisis and beyond: the transformation of the European political system. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Research Paper, 2018, no. RSCAS 2018/67.

de Jong J., Gilbert N. (2019) The mixed success of the Stability and Growth Pact. VOX, 15 January.

Dellas H., Tavlas G. (2005) Wage rigidity and monetary union. Economic Journal, vol. 115, iss. 506, pp. 907– 927.

Fleming M. (1971) On exchange rate unification. Economic Journal, vol. 81, iss. 323, pp. 467–486.

Fricke T. (2019) Was the euro crisis caused by excessive debt? I n: Austerity (eds D. Plehwe, M. Neujeffski, S. McBride and B. Evans). Berlin: Social Europe, pp. 44–51.

Gasparotti A., Kullas M. (2019) 20 Years of the Euro: Winners and Losers. Freiburg: Centre for European Policy. 20 p.

Grubel H. (1984) The International Monetary System. Harmondsworth: Penguin Books.

Heise A. (2015) Euro or not euro — that is not the question! Economic well-being and the fate of the Economic and Monetary Union, Review of Keynesian Economics, vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 443–456.

Herr H., Priewe J., Watt A. (eds). (2019) Still Time to Save the Euro. Berlin: Social Europe Publishing. 284 p.

Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF. (2007) The IMF Exchange Rate Policy Advice: Findings and Recommendations. Evaluation Report, IMF. Washington . 51 p.

Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF. (2016) The IMF and the Crises in Greece, Ireland and Portugal: An Evaluation by the Independent Evaluation Office. Washington. 66 p.

Ioannidis J., Doucouliagos C. (2013) What’s to know about the credibility of empirical economics?, Journal of Economic Surveys, vol. 27, iss. 5, pp. 997–1004.

Jovanović M. (1997) European Economic Integration. London: Routledge. 416 p.

Jovanović M. (2012) Is the eurozone rescue strategy tantamount to the rearrangement of the deckchairs on the Titanic?, Journal of Economic Integration, no. 27, pp. 33–79.

Jovanović M. (2013) The Economics of European Integration. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. 1056 p.

Jovanović M. (2015а) The Economics of International Integration. Cheltenham: Edward Elgr. 720 p.

Jovanović M. (2015b) The eurozone Greek tragedy. Law and Politics, vol. 71, iss. 3, pp. 7–24.

Jovanović M., Damnjanović J. (2013) Geopolitics of the European Union: Are steps backward the way forward?, Economia Internazionale/International Economics, vol. 66, iss. 4, pp. 455–482.

Jovanović M., Damnjanović J., Njegić J. (2018) Among the Central and Eastern European countries of the European Union, who gained and who lost? Economia Internazionale/ International Economics, vol. 71, iss. 3, pp. 317–370.

Kenen P. (1969) Theory of optimum currency areas: an eclectic view, in Monetary Problems of the International Economy (eds R. Mundell and A. Swoboda). Chicago: Chicago University Press, pp. 41–60.

Laqueur W. The slow death of Europe, The National Interest. URL: https://nationalinterest.org/commentary/why-the-euro-the-least-europes-worries-5767 (accessed: 22.07. 2019).

Livingstone K. (1987) If Voting Changed Anything, They'd Abolish It. London: Collins. 256 p.

Machlup F. (1979) A History of Thought on Economic Integration. London: Macmillan.

Maggiori M., Neiman B., Schreger J. (2018) The Rise of the Dollar and Fall of the Euro as International Currencies, University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics, Working Paper, no. 2018–84. Available at: URL: https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI-WP-2018-84.pdf (accessed: 23.07.19).

Maloney M., Macmillen M. (1999) Do currency unions grow too large for their own good? Economic Journal, vol. 109, no. 458, pp. 572–587.

Masera R. (2018) Eurozone exit: political, institutional, monetary and economic issues. Rome: Univer-sity G. Marconi, School of Business. Available at: URL: https://www.sipotra.it/old/wp-content/up-loads/2018/11/Eurozone-exit-political-institutional-monetary-and-economic-issues.-An-analysis-of-the-key-stress-points-of-the-single-currency-and-their-interactions.pdf (accessed: 23.07.19).

McKinnon R. (1963) Optimum currency area. American Economic Review, vol. 53, no. 4, pp. 717–725.

Mody A. (2018) Euro Tragedy: A Drama in Nine Acts. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018. xix+651p.

Mundell R. (1961) A theory of optimum currency areas. American Economic Review, vol. 51, no. 4, pp. 321–325.

Orphanides A. (2015) The euro area crisis five years after the original sin, MIT Sloan School. Working Paper 5147–15. Available at: URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2676103 (accessed: 23.07.2019).

Orphanides A. (2017) The fiscal-monetary policy mix in the euro area: challenges at the zero lower bound, MIT Sloan School. Working Paper 5197–17. Available at: URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2965805 (accessed: 23.07.19).

Pitelis C. (2012) On PIGS, GAFFs and BRICs: An insider-outsider’s perspective on the structural and industrial foundations of the Greek crisis. Contributions to Political Economy, vol. 31, iss. 1, pp. 77–89.

Praussello F. (2011). Asymmetric shocks and monetary disintegration: the case of the eurozone. In:

International Handbook on the Economics of Integration: Competition, Spatial Location of Economic Activity and Financial Issues (ed. M. Jovanović). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, pp. 360–377.

Plehwe D., Neujeffski M., McBride S., Evans B. (eds). (2019) Austerity. Berlin: Social Europe. 110 p.

Priewe J. (2019) Germany’s current account surplus — a grave macroeconomic disequilibrium, Still Time to Save the Euro (eds H. Herr, J. Priewe and A. Watt). Berlin: Social Europe Publishing, pp. 81–102.

Reinhart C., Trebesch C. (2015) The pitfalls of external dependence: Greece, 1829–2015. Brookings Papers, no. 2, pp. 307–328.

Rickards J. (2012) Currency Wars. New York: Penguin. 320 p.

Rickards J. (2014) The Death of Money. New York: Portfolio/Penguin. 384 p.

Rickards J. (2016) The New Case for Gold. London: Portfolio Penguin. 192 p.

Robson P. (1983) Integration, Development and Equity. London: George Allen & Unwin, 181 p.

Sawyer M. (2015) Can prosperity return to the Economic and Monetary Union? Review of Keynesian Economics, no. 3, iss. 4, pp. 457–470.

Schmidt I. (2019) Markets good, public bad — the false promises of market populism. In: Austerity (edsD. Plehwe, M. Neujeffski, S.McBride and B. Evans). Berlin: Social Europe, pp. 55–60.

Sidjanski D. (2000) The Federal Future of Europe. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. XXV, 462 p.

Sidjanski D. (2001) The federal approach to the European Union or the quest for an unprecedented European

federalism, Notre Europe, Paris, Research and Policy Paper, no. 14. Available at: URL: http://www. dusan-sidjanski.eu/sites/default/files/PDF/OUVRAGES/01_FederalApproachEU_NotreEurope.pdf (accessed: 23.07.19).

Sidjanski D. (2011) A new era for Europe: the Lisbon Treaty — from Constitution to Lisbon Treaty. In:

International Handbook on the Economics of Integration: General Issues and Regional Groups (ed. By M. Jovanovic). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, pp. 279–300.

Sidjanski D. (2018) Europe Existential Crisis. Geneva: University of Geneva, Dušan Sidjanski D. Centre of Excellence in European Studies. Available at: URL: http://www.dusan-sidjanski.eu/sites/default/files/ PDF/DIRECTION_OUVRAGES/Europes _existential_crisis_-_Facing_the_Threats_Challenges_ Dusan_Sidjanski_June_2018.pdf (accessed: 23.07.19).

Soros G. (2014) The Tragedy of the European Union: Disintegration or Revival? New York: Public Affairs. 208 p.

Stiglitz J. (2016) The Euro: How a Common Currency Threatens the Future of Europe. New York: Norton. 448 p.

Tavlas G. (1993) The “new” theory of optimum currency areas. The World Economy, no. 16, pp. 663–685.

Vollaard H. (2014) Explaining European disintegration. Journal of Common Market Studies, vol. 52, iss. 5, pp. 1124–1159.

Werner P. (1970) Report to the Council and the Commission on the Realization by Stages of Economic and Monetary Union in the Community. Luxembourg: European Community. 65 p.

Загрузки

Опубликован

06.12.2019

Как цитировать

Jovanović, M. (2019). The Slow Motion Train Crash of the Eurozone Monetary Alchemy. Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Экономика, 35(3), 360–396. https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2019.303

Выпуск

Том 35 № 3 (2019)

Раздел

Мировая экономика и международные финансы

Лицензия

Статьи журнала «Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Экономика» находятся в открытом доступе и распространяются в соответствии с условиями Лицензионного Договора с Санкт-Петербургским государственным университетом, который бесплатно предоставляет авторам неограниченное распространение и самостоятельное архивирование.

Наиболее читаемые статьи этого автора (авторов)