Исследования рисков биологических угроз: сравнительный анализ подходов и роль страхования
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2021.207Аннотация
Пандемия нового коронавирусного заболевания (COVID-19) оказывает огромное влияние на мировую экономику, значительно затрагивая функционирование всех ее отраслей. В этой связи особую актуальность приобретает поиск путей минимизации отрицательных последствий подобных рисков. В статье представлены результаты систематического анализа научных публикаций ведущих зарубежных и российских авторов, посвященных различным аспектам рисков, возникающих вследствие вирусных угроз, а также способам снижения негативных последствий их реализации. В частности, рассмотрены исследования, оценивающие влияние на экономику различных факторов, возникающих во время и после эпидемий. Анализ публикаций показал, что исследователями в качестве таких факторов выделяются: 1) социальная система государства; 2) расходы правительства на борьбу с эпидемией; 3) роль международных организаций в борьбе с эпидемиями в отдельных странах. Далее проанализированы представленные в литературе подходы к построению моделей, описывающих распространение биологических угроз, отраженные в публикациях представителей различных научных областей, в частности медицинского и экономико-математического, в том числе актуарного, моделирования. Рассмотрены три подхода к моделированию развития инфекционных заболеваний, отличающихся как по используемому аппарату, так и по преимущественной области применения соответствующих моделей. Особое внимание уделено вкладу, который могут внести научные исследования в области страхования в разработку новых теоретических подходов нивелирования негативных экономических последствий COVID-19. Авторами выделяются три направления: 1) ис-
пользование актуарных моделей для анализа и оценки рисков биологических угроз; 2) применение релевантных страховых продуктов на страховом рынке как инструмент управления рисками эпидемий, предоставляющий финансовую защиту; 3) использование инновационных технологий при оказании страховой услуги (InsurTech).
Ключевые слова:
биологическая угроза, COVID-19, систематический анализ, минимизация ущерба, экономико-математическое моделирование, страхование, страховой рынок, страховой продукт, InsurTech
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Статьи журнала «Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Экономика» находятся в открытом доступе и распространяются в соответствии с условиями Лицензионного Договора с Санкт-Петербургским государственным университетом, который бесплатно предоставляет авторам неограниченное распространение и самостоятельное архивирование.
