Многомерная оценка производительности транспортного сектора: непараметрический анализ экономики Азербайджана
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2024.404Аннотация
Усиление геополитической напряженности и изменение экономических отношений между Востоком и Западом побуждают к проведению новых исследований в таких географически благоприятных странах, как Азербайджан. Правительство Азербайджана значительно улучшило транспортную инфраструктуру страны после периода нефтяного бума, однако многомерные показатели этого сектора все еще недостаточно изучены в научных кругах, что оставляет пробел в знаниях и методологии, который и пытается
заполнить данное исследование. С этой целью к собранным данным за период с 1998 по 2022 г. был применен анализ главных компонент (АГК) для создания индексных показателей эффективности каждого транспортного сектора (например, железнодорожного, авиационного, морского). Такие переменные, как занятость, инвестиции, доходы и т. д., использовались для оценки эффективности с помощью метода сокращения размерности. Затем фактические и потенциальные показатели сравнивались с помощью фильтра Ходрика — Прескотта (ХП). Полученные результаты свидетельствуют о том, что авиационный, морской и автомобильный транспорт имеет положительную тенденцию к росту своих потенциальных возможностей. В то же время железнодорожный сектор значительно ухудшился, а трубопроводный замедлился, хотя восстановление после пандемии COVID-19 и конфликта на Украине в 2022 г. сделало азербайджанский транспортный сектор привлекательным для международных партнеров. Кроме того,железнодорожный и морской секторы более волатильны по своим показателям по сравнению с другими секторами. В то время как железнодорожная инфраструктура нуждается в срочном реформировании, другие сектора должны повысить свои потенциальные и фактические показатели. Данное исследование дает возможность корректировки государственной политики в области транспорта, а также вносит вклад в теорию благодаря систематическому подробному рассмотрению эффективности каждого сектора.
Ключевые слова:
анализ главных компонентов, логистика, транспорт, фильтр Ходрика — Прескотта, экономика Азербайджана.
Скачивания
Библиографические ссылки
Ahmad, A., Bakar, M. H. A., Nadzeri, M. S. M., Ali, M. N. M. and Tuselim, A. S. M. (2022) ‘Sustaining forward momentum towards intervention-less, reliable and safe transportation of hydrocarbon through petronas digital pipeline integrity management system’, in Proceedings of Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, Abu Dhabi, UAE: ADIPEC. https://doi.org/10.2118/210995-MS
Ahmadov, F., Mirzayeva, G. and Mammadov, I. (2021) ‘Competitiveness analysis of the tourism sector in Azerbaijan and the clustering problem’, Journal of Environmental Management & Tourism, 12 (8), pp. 2240–2250.
Akbulaev, N., and Bayramli, G. (2020) ‘Maritime transport and economic growth: Interconnection and influence (an example of the countriesin the Caspian sea coast; Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Iran)’, Marine Policy, 118, 104005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104005
Aliyeva, T., Mamtiyev, K., Rzayeva, U. and Jafarov, E. (2021) ‘Environmental security in the transport sector: Analysis of the current situation in Azerbaijan’, in Proceedings of the International Conference on Problems of Logistics, Management and Operation in the East-West Transport Corridor (PLMO), October 27–29. Baku, Azerbaijan.
Anastasia, M. K., Ginting, P. U., Syahrir, R. F., Hermansyah, O. and Shiroth, M. (2023) ‘The dynamic of Indonesia’s sectoral economic cycles’, Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 26 (2), pp. 136–167.https://doi.org/10.59091/1410-8046.2068
Annen, K. (2006) HP-Filter Excel add-in, QM&RBC Codes. Available at: https://econpapers.repec.org/software/dgeqmrbcd/165.htm (accessed: 24.10.2023).
Atilgan Türkmen, B. (2022) ‘Environmental performance of high-efficiency natural gas combined cycle plant’, Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental Effects, 44 (1), pp. 57–74.https://doi.org/10.1080/15567036.2020.1856974
Azadliq Radiosu (2023) Declining workers, rising prices: What is the state of Azerbaijan Railways after the pandemic? Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fXFuf0M0n0&ab_channel=AzadliqRadiosu (accessed: 20.10.2023). (In Azerbaijani)
ağirzade, E. (2023) ‘Azerbaycan’in pandemi sonrasi ekonomik kalkinma perspektifi’, Türk Dünyası Araştırmaları, 133 (263), pp. 187–206.(In Turkish) https://doi.org/10.55773/tda.1283877
Bittner, V. A. and Ibrahimli, M. (2018) ‘Baku — Tbilisi — Kars: Regional Implications and Perspectives’. Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD). Baku, Azerbaijan. Available at: https://cesd.az/new/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/CESD_Research_Paper_BTK.pdf (accessed: 20.01.2024).
Bogdan, O. and Najdov, E. (2020) ‘Belt and Road Initiative: Azerbaijan Country Case Study’. World Bank. Washington. Available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34329 (accessed: 20.01.2024).
Çetinkaya, A. F. and Demirel, N. (2024) ‘Analyzing the impact of the organization of Turkic states on the foreign trade of member countries’, Cogent Social Sciences, 10 (1), 2288370. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2023.2288370
Chislov, O., Lyabakh, N., Kolesnikov, M., Bakalov, M. and Bezusov, D. (2021) ‘Fuzzy modelling of the transportation logistics processes’, Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 2131 (3), pp. 1–11.
Choi, J., Park, Y. S. and Park, J. D. (2015) ‘Development of an aggregate air quality index using a PCA-based method: A case study of the US transport sector’, American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 5 (2), pp. 53–65. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajibm.2015.52007
Gadimova, N. (2017) Eight facts about Azerbaijani aviation. Available at: https://caspiannews.com/newsdetail/eight-facts-about azerbaijani-aviation-2017-6-2-21/ (accessed: 19.01.2024).
Hasanov, F. (2013) ‘Dutch disease and the Azerbaijan economy’, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 46 (4), pp. 463–480. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2013.09.001
Hasanov, F. (2022) Why are air tickets expensive in Azerbaijan? Everyone is talking, AZAL is silent. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/azeri/articles/c3gqgnyz2wjo (accessed: 19.01.2024).
Hashimova, K. and Kadyrov, Z. (2017) ‘The current situation and problems of state-owned enterprises in Azerbaijan’. Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD). Baku, Azerbaijan: CESD Press. Available at: https://cesd.az/new/wpcontent/uploads/2018/10/CESD_Paper_SEOs.pdf (accessed:19.01.2024).
Hilali, İ., Işıker, Y. and Ulker, N. (2024) ‘The hydrogen perspective for Türkiye, which is on the Asia-Europe energy transition route. Can Türkiye become hydrogen hub?’, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 75, pp. 88‒97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.12.247
Hwang, Y. S., Kim, S. E. and Choi, Y. J. (2010) ‘Is BTC Oil Pipeline Good or Bad for Azerbaijan Economy?’, Environmental and Resource Economics Review, 19 (2), pp. 413–440.
Ibrahimov, R. (2010) ‘Azerbaijan energy strategy and the importance of the divercification of exported transport routes’, Journal of Qafqaz University, 29, pp. 23–29.
Ibrahimov, R. (2016). ‘The Development of the transport sector in Azerbaijan: The implementation and challenges’, Human Development, 5 (1), p. 45.
Imanova, S. (2022) ‘Evaluation of logistics services of airlines in the Azerbaijan passenger transportation market’, in Proceedings of 15th International Conference on Applications of Fuzzy Systems, Soft Computing and Artificial Intelligence Tools — ICAFS. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, pp. 154–163. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-25252-5_24
International Monetary Fund. (2024) Prices, production, and labour. Available at: https://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=61545849 (accessed: 19.10.2023).
International Trade Administration — ITA. (2022) Azerbaijan — Country Commercial Guide — Transportation and Logistics. Available at: https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/azerbaijan-transportation-and-logistics (accessed: 24.10.2023).
Kumar, A. and Anbanandam, R. (2022) ‘Assessment of environmental and social sustainability performance of the freight transportation industry: An index-based approach’, Transport Policy, 124, pp. 43–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.01.006
Kwon, J., Park, S., Kim, T., and Kim, H. (2023) ‘A novel business cycle indicator of the Korean shipping industry’, The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics, 39 (4), pp. 16‒25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajsl.2023.10.002
Li, W. and Miller-Hooks, E. (2023) ‘Understanding the implications of port-related workforce shortages on global maritime performance through the study of a carrier alliance’, Maritime Economics & Logistics, 25, pp. 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41278-023-00263-z
Lianlei, B. (2016) ‘Azerbaijan in the Silk Road Economic Belt: A Chinese perspective’, Caucasus International, 6 (1), pp. 27–39.
Lockett, A. and Thompson, S. (2001) ‘The resource-based view and economics’, Journal of management, 27 (6), pp. 723–754.
Lussac, S. (2008) ‘The Baku — Tbilisi — Kars railroad and its geopolitical implications for the South Caucasus’, Caucasian Review of International Affairs, 2 (4), pp. 212–224.
Madhani, P. M. (2010) ‘Resource based view (RBV) of competitive advantage: An overview’, in Pankaj Madhani (ed.) Resource based view: Concepts and practices. Hyderabad, India: ICFAI University Press, pp. 3–22. Available at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1578704 (accessed:19.01.2024).
Maharramov, S. (2021) ‘Econometric assessment of Azerbaijan’s logistics capabilities in terms of relations with Turkic-Speaking states’, Економічний вісник Донбасу, 4 (66), pp. 190–218. https://doi.org/10.12958/1817-3772-2021-4(66)-45-52
Mahmud, H. E. (2015) ‘Great Silk Road and the “Baku — Tbilisi — Kars” project’, Gulustan Black Sea Scientific Journal of Academic Research Multidisciplinary Journal, 22 (04), pp. 59–69.
Majidi, A. F. and Zarouni, Z. (2016) ‘The impact of sanctions on the economy of Iran’, International Journal of Resistive Economics, 4 (1), pp. 84–99.
Mammadali, M. A. and Gabil, K. B. (2017) ‘Transport infrastructure as a factor of economic growth in Azerbaijan’, Journal of Social and Development Sciences, 8 (3), pp. 35–39. https://doi.org/10.22610/jsds.v8i3.1973
Mayburov, I. A. and Leontyeva, U. V. (2017) ‘Theoretical and methodological aspects of building optimal system of transport payments’, St. Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies, 33 (3), pp. 392–414. https://doi.org/10.21638/11701/spbu05.2017.303 (In Russian)
Mikail, E. H., Çora, H. and Çora, A. N. (2020) ‘Azerbaijan’s energy resources and BTC (Bakü Tbilisi Ceyhan is the name given to the pipeline project being built for crude oil transfer) project’, Open Journal of Political Science, 10 (02), pp. 163–184. https://doi.org/10.4236/ojps.2020.102012
Mishra, A. K., Vohra, V., Raja, K. N., Singh, S. and Singh, Y. (2017) ‘Principal component analysis of biometric traits to explain body conformation in Kajali sheep of Punjab, India’, Indian Journal of Animal Sciences, 87 (1), pp. 93–98.
Novruzova, M. (2020) ‘Sea shipping: Port of Azerbaijan’, in Book of Proceedings: 55th International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development, 3 (4), pp. 677–686.
Özden, A. T., Çelik, E. and Gül, M. (2023) ‘Evaluation of Service Quality in the Airline Industry: The Case of Turkey and Azerbaijan’, Journal of Marketing & Marketing Research/Pazarlama & Pazarlama Arastirmalari Dernegi, 16 (2), pp. 551–581.
Raykov, T. and Marcoulides, G. A. (2014) ‘Population proportion of explained variance in principal component analysis: A note on its evaluation via a large-sample approach’, Structural Equation Modeling: A Multidisciplinary Journal, 21 (4), pp. 588–595. https://doi.org/10.1080/10705511.2014.919826
Ririhena, S. and Loklomin, S. B. (2020) ‘Pendekatan principal component analysis pada data demam berdarah dengue di provinsi maluku utara’, BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan, 14, (4), pp. 557–564.https://doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol14iss4pp557 564 (In Indonesian)
Rzayev, J. and Aliyev, F. (2023) ‘Role of Azerbaijan in maintaining energy security of Europe’, Państwa Postradzieckie w Procesie Modernizacji, 18, pp. 57–67. https://doi.org/10.31971/24500267.18.5
Sarstedt, M. and Mooi, E. (2014) A concise guide to market research. The process, data, and methods using IBM SPSS statistics. Berlin: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-56707-4
Seyfullayev, I. (2020) ‘Protectionism and non-resource economic growth: Evidence from Azerbaijan’, Problems and Perspectives in Management, 18 (4), pp. 121–129. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.18(4).2020.11
Seyfullayev, I. (2022) ‘Trade openness and economic growth: Evidence from Azerbaijan’, Problems and Perspectives in Management, 20 (1), pp. 564–572. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.20(1).2022.45
Shoyombo, A. J., Alabi, O. O., Animashahun, R. A., Olawoye, S. O., Popoola, M. A., Musa, A. A., Yakubu, H., Williams M. E, and Akinsola, O. M. (2019) ‘Principal component and stepwise discriminant analysis of the morphometric traits of three dual-purpose breeds of chicken’, Nigerian Journal of Animal Science, 21 (1), pp. 1–8.
State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan — SSCRA. (2023) Transport. Available at: https://stat.gov.az/source/transport/ lang=en (accessed: 21.10.2023).
Suleymanov, G. Q. (2023) ‘Caucasus and Asian countries: Transport prospects’, Bol’shaia Evraziia: razvitie,bezopasnost’, sotrudnichestvo, 6 (1), pp. 466–467.
Terziovski, M. (2010) ‘Innovation practice and its performance implications in small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the manufacturing sector: A resource‐based view’, Strategic Management Journal, 31 (8), pp. 892–902. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.841
Umar, D. S., Okeke, R. O., Nwanmmo, A. C., Bello, M. O., Allen, O. G., Adeniyi, O. O., Madu, J., Panshak, L. N. and Allen, D. M. (2021) ‘Varimax rotated principal component analysis of productive traits in Nigeria indigenous cattle raised under semi-intensive management system’, Asian Research Journal of Agriculture, 14 (4), pp. 25–29.
Valsalan, J., Sadan, T. and Venketachalapathy, T. (2020) ‘Multivariate principal component analysis to evaluate growth performances in Malabari goats of India’, Tropical animal health and production, 52, pp. 2451–2460. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11250-020-02268-9
Vickerman, R. (2021) ‘Will Covid-19 put the public back in public transport? A UK perspective’, Transport Policy, 103, pp. 95–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.01.005
Wanke, P. F., Yazdi, A. K., Hanne, T. and Tan, Y. (2023) ‘Unveiling drivers of sustainability in Chinese transport: An approach based on principal component analysis and neural networks’, Transportation Planning and Technology, 46 (5), pp. 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1080/03081060.2023.2198517
Wingdes, I., Nurfaizi, S. and Rifki, M. (2022) ‘PCA implementation in identifying risk and return of LQ45 stocks’, Conference Series, 4 (1), pp. 32–42. https://doi.org/10.34306/conferenceseries.v4i1.668
Yamamoto, H., Fujimori, T., Sato, H., Ishikawa, G., Kami, K. and Ohashi, Y. (2014) ‘Statistical hypothesis testing of factor loading in principal component analysis and its application to metabolite set enrichment analysis’, BMC bioinformatics, 15, pp. 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2105-15-51
Yefimova, E. G. (2007) ‘Concession in the transport infrastructure: Foreign experience and russian practice’. St. Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies, 5 (2), pp. 115– 124. (In Russian)
Yusifov, E. M., Kulu, T. K. and Mammadov, H. P. (2019) ‘Logistics sector in Azerbaijan economy: Structural improvements and orientations strategic development’, EUREKA: Social and Humanities, 2, pp. 29–38. https://doi.org/10.21303/2504 5571.2019.00873
Yusupov, N. (2020) ‘Measuring the impact of road infrastructure on household well-being: Evidence from Azerbaijan’, ADBI Working Paper Series, No. 1205.
Zabanova, Y. (2017) ‘Connecting Iran and the South Caucasus: Competing visions of the North-South corridor’, Caucasus Analytical Digest, 92, pp. 6–10.
Ziyadov, T. (2011) ‘Azerbaijan as a regional hub in Central Eurasia. Strategic Assessment of Euro-Asian Trade and Transportation’. Caspian Strategy Institute. Baku. Available at: https://www.ada.edu.az/frqcontent/ plugins/newspaper_list_x1/entry/20220727143938_28420400.pdf (accessed: 24.10.2023).
Загрузки
Опубликован
Как цитировать
Выпуск
Раздел
Лицензия
Статьи журнала «Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Экономика» находятся в открытом доступе и распространяются в соответствии с условиями Лицензионного Договора с Санкт-Петербургским государственным университетом, который бесплатно предоставляет авторам неограниченное распространение и самостоятельное архивирование.
