The Modern Phase of the World Economic Conjuncture Features

Abstract

In this article, the author examines some peculiarities of the 2008–2010 world economic crisis from the point of view of economic conjuncture conception dealing with the cycles of different length — basically, there are Modelsky, Kondratieff and Kuznets cycles. We have diagnosed the modern phase of the world economic conjuncture as a Kuznets cycle depression, falling on the upswing period of Kondratieff cycle and simultaneously on the downswing period of Modelsky cycle. The possibility of using the diagnosed Kuznets cycle depression as a trigger for the cluster of basis innovations was estimated. Also, the pointed conception of depression as a trigger for innovation activity was verifi ed. The prognosis of the slow rate of world economic growth till 2020 is proved. In the article, considerations of the relevant national innovation policy based on the diagnosed phase characteristics of economic conjuncture and on the prognosis of the economic growth rate are made.

Keywords:

economic cycle, Kondratieff cycle, long economic waves, economic crisis, economic depression, conjuncture, innovation policy