Analysis of export and import structures using network methods (on the example of the agricultural market)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2020.304Abstract
Analysis of trade cooperation between countries and identification of the most significant market participants is of great importance, both theoretically and empirically. The global trading community forms a network of international relations defined by trade contracts in various industries. Export-import trade flows are one of the key indicators of the level of cooperation among countries and the state of the global economy. The high intensity of such contacts across groups of countries suggests the existence of clusters in this market segment,consisting of central players — exporters and importers, who often define rules for other participants.Understanding the existence and identification of such a center helps to develop an optimal international trade strategy. The purpose of this contribution is to identify factors affecting trade flows among different countries. Statistical analysis of the international trade relations does not always reveal all the essential aspects of cooperation. This paper combines the methods of graph theory and econometric analysis to study the parameters of trade flows among countries. The parameters used in the network analysis make it possible to obtain additional characteristics of market participants, which help to evaluate their significance in the world trade. The paper also identifies some key mathematical and economic characteristics of export-import flows connecting destination countries. We have analyzed the directions of changes in world trade and established correspondences between metric characteristics of graph vertices and parameters of world trade models. The Russian indicators in export/import categories and its largest sales agents are estimated. The identification of the key intermediaries and importers (centers and authorities) on each of the markets in question has been carried out. As an example for this identification the market of agricultural products among the world’s largest exporters and importers of the product were used.
Keywords:
globalization, international trade models, econometric models, export and import models, graph theory, network analysis
Downloads
References
References in Latin Alphabet
Anderson J. E. (1979) A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation. American Economic Review, vol. 69, iss. 1, pp. 106–116.
Anderson J. E., Van Wincoop (2003) Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle. American Economic Review, vol. 63, pp. 881–892.
Barigozzi M., Fagiolo G., Mangioni G. (2011) Identifying the community structure of the international-trade multi network. Physica A: Statistical mechanics and its applications, vol. 390, iss. 11, pp. 2051–2066.
Bonacich P. (1972) Factoring and Weighting Approaches to Status Scores and Clique Identification. Journal of Mathematical Sociology, vol. 2, pp. 113–120.
Bonacich P. (1987) Power and Centrality: A Family of Measures. American Journal of Sociology, vol. 92, pp. 1170–1182.
Brin S., Page L. (1998) The Anatomy of a Large-Scale Hypertextual Web Search Engine. Computer Networks and ISDN Systems, vol. 30, pp. 107–117.
Chandrasekhar A., Jackson M. (2016) A network formation model based on subgraphs.arXiv:1611.07658 [physics.soc-ph]. Available: https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.07658.
Chaney T. (2016) Networks in International Trade. The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Networks,Oxford. Available: https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199948277.013.19.
Combes P. P., Mayer T., Thisse J.-F. (2008) Economic Geography. The Integration of Regions and Nations. Princeton, Princeton University Press. 416 p.
Deardorff A. V. (1998) Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World? In: The
Regionalization of the World Economy. J. A. Frankel (ed.). Chicago, University of Chicago Press, pp. 7–32.
De Lombaerde P., Iapadre L., Mccranie A., Tajoli L. (2019) Using network analysis to study globalization, regionalization, and multi-polarity-Introduction to special section. Network Science, vol. 6, iss. 4, pp. 494–516.
Desikan P., Srivastava J., Kumar V., Tan P-N. (2005) Hyperlink Analysis: Techniques and Applications
Department of Computer Science. Minnesota, Minneapolis: University of Minnesota, Minneapolis. MN, USA. 42 p.
Fisher S., Dornbusch R., Schmalenzi R. (1993) Economics. Moscow, Delo LTD Publ. 864 p.
Eaton, J., Kortum S (2002) Technology, Geography, and Trade. Econometrica, vol. 70, iss. 5, pp. 1741–1779.
Gereffi G., Humphrey J., Sturgeon T. (2005) The governance of global value chains. Review of International Political Economy, vol. 12, iss. 1, pp. 78–104.
Helpman E., Krugman P. (1985) Market Structure and International Trade. MIT Press. 283 p.
Hubler M. (2016) A new trade network theory: What economists can learn from engineers. Economic modelling, vol. 55, pp. 115–126.
Jackson M., Rogers B., Zenou Y. (2017) The Economic Consequences of Social-Network Structure. Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 55, no. 1, pp. 49–95.
Krugman P. R. (1980) Scale economies, product differentiation, and pattern of trade. The American Economic Review, vol. 70, no. 5, pp. 950–959.
Leamer and Levinsohn (1994) International trade theory: the evidence. NBER Working paper, no. 4940.
Mankew N. G. (1999) Principles of economics: textbook. St. Petersburg, Peter Kom Publ. 784 p.
Lee J. W., Maeng S. E., Ha G.-G., Lee M. H., Cho E. S. (2013) Applications of Complex Networks on Analysis of World Trade Network. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, vol. 410, pp. 1–4.
Piccardi C., Tajoli L. (2015) Are preferential agreements significant for the world trade structure? A network community analysis. Kyklos, vol. 68, iss. 2, pp. 220–239.
Shumilov A. (2016) Estimating Gravity Models of International Trade: A Survey, MPRA Paper, no. 75371, posted 1 December 2016 20:15 UTC, pp. 224–250.
Smith D. A., White D. R. (1992) Structure and Dynamics of the Global Economy: Network Analysis of International Trade 1965–1980. Social Forces, vol. 70, no. 4, pp. 857–893.
Tumanova E. A., Shagas N. L. (2004) Macroeconomics. Elements of an advanced approach: Textbook. Moscow, INFRA-M Publ. 400 p. (In Russian)
Tinbergen J. (1962) Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economic Policy. New York, Twentieth Century Fund, pp. 271–273.
Wasserman S., Faust K. (1994) Social Network Analysis. Methods and Applications. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press. 461 p.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Articles of the St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies are open access distributed under the terms of the License Agreement with Saint Petersburg State University, which permits to the authors unrestricted distribution and self-archiving free of charge.
