Forecasting of Dynamics of Social-Economic Systems Development

Authors

  • Вячеслав Георгиевич Родионов St. Petersburg State University, 7–9, Universitetskaya nab., St. Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation

Abstract

The article is dedicated to the methods of regulation of socialeconomic systems development under the growing uncertainty. The scheme of active management is offered. The geometric form, reflecting the dynamics of the process is proved. The author determined parameters of the order of dynamic model, namely employment and its effectiveness. Also a technique of estimation of instability level of socialeconomic system on the base of calculation of the fluctuations amplitude is suggested. The model forecasting the GDP growth rate on the base of neural networks is offered.

Keywords:

Economic Theory

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Author Biography

Вячеслав Георгиевич Родионов, St. Petersburg State University, 7–9, Universitetskaya nab., St. Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation

кандидат экономических наук, доцент

References

Литература на русском языке

Капица С. П., Курдюмов С. П., Малинецкий Г. Г. Синергетика и прогнозы будущего. М., 2003.

Клавдиенко В. Инвестиции и экономический рост // Инвестиции в России. 2002. № 7. С. 40–45.

Родионов В. Г. Организация эффективного управления социально-экономическим развитием регионов России на основе «активного подхода». СПб., 2002.

Родионов В. Г. Применение анализа амплитудно-частотной динамики в управлении социально-экономическими системами // Вестн. С.-Петерб. ун-та. Сер. 5: Экономика. 2005. Вып. 1. С. 151–155.

Современный экономический словарь / Под ред. Б. А. Райзберга, Л. Ш. Лозовского, Е. Б. Стародубцева. М., 2003.


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Translation of references in Russian into English

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Published

2007-06-29

How to Cite

Родионов, В. Г. (2007). Forecasting of Dynamics of Social-Economic Systems Development. St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies, (2), 049–057. Retrieved from https://economicsjournal.spbu.ru/article/view/3771

Issue

No. 2 (2007)

Section

Economic Theory

License

Articles of the St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies are open access distributed under the terms of the License Agreement with Saint Petersburg State University, which permits to the authors unrestricted distribution and self-archiving free of charge.