Three crises in the Russian economy and one chain of events
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21638/11701/spbu05.2018.101Abstract
In the post-Soviet period, the Russian economy has faced three market-type crises (1998, 2008-2009, 2014-2016). Even though impulses moving the economy out of equilibrium were external, mechanisms for the diffusion of these impulses from the financial system into real sector were specific to Russia. This paper explores consistent relations of events that brought about these economic crashes. All three cyclical crises in the Russian economy followed the same chain of events. Recession began with a decline in oil prices, which then provoked a deep and sharp ruble devaluation, the scale of which was determined by speculation by commercial banks. To stabilize the ruble exchange rate, the Central Bank increased interest rates and squeezed the liquidity of the banking sector. This raised the cost of credits, such that companies of real sector had to borrow less, transforming the financial shock transformed into an economic crisis. This paper reveals the scheme of links and chains of events that transformed external shocks into full-fledged recessions, and all processes in Russia’s economy during these three cyclical crises of post-Soviet development followed the same scheme.
Keywords:
business cycle, recession, devaluation, dynamics of interest rates
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Литература
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Translation of references in Russian into English
Aganbegian A. G. Ekonomika Rossii: ot stagnatsii k retsessii [Russian Economy: From Stagnation to Recession]. Den’gi i kredit [Russian Journal of Money and Finance ], 2016, no. 5, pp. 10–20. (In Russian)
Aganbegian A. G. Kak gosbiudzhet mozhet stat’ lokomotivom sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiia strany [How National Budget can Provide Economic Growth]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2015, no. 7, pp. 142–151. (In Russian)
Altunian A. G. Prioritety monetarnoi politiki v kontekste natsional’nykh interesov [Priorities of Monetary Policy in the Context of National Interests]. St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies , 2015, no. 1, pp. 103–115. (In Russian)
Andriushin S. A., Kuznetsova V. V. Sostoianie bankovskogo sektora i antikrizisnye mery pravitel’stva Rossii [The state of the banking sector and the anti-crisis measures of the Russian government]. EKO [ECO ], 2009, no. 4, pp. 39–53. (In Russian)
Belousov A. R. Sistemnyi krizis kak vyzov rossiiskomu obshchestvu [System crisis as a challenge to Russian society]. Problemy prognozirovaniia [Studies on Russian Economic Development], 1998, no. 2, pp. 17–51. (In Russian)
Drobyshevskii S. M., Trunin P. V., Bozhechkova A. V., Sinel’nikova-Muryleva E. V. Vliianie stavok protsenta na ekonomicheskii rost [Interest Rate Impact on Economic Growth]. Dengi i Kredit [Russian Journal of Money and Finance], 2016, no. 9, pp. 29–40. (In Russian)
Fomin D. A., Khanin G. I. Ekonomicheskii krizis 2008 g. v Rossii: prichiny i posledstviia [The 2008 Economic Crisis in Russia: Causes and Consequences]. EKO [ECO], 2009, no. 1, pp. 20–37. (In Russian)
Frolov D. Teoriia krizisov posle krizisa: tekhnologii versus instituty [Crisis theory after crisis: technology versus institutions]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2011, no. 7, pp. 17–33. (In Russian)
Galanov S. S. Krizis, banki i real’nyi sektor ekonomiki v sovremennykh usloviiakh [Crisis, Banks and the Real Sector at the Present]. Dengi i Kredit [Russian Journal of Money and Finance], 2009, no. 11, pp. 38–43. (In Russian)
Glaz’ev S. Iu. O targetirovanii infliatsii [On inflation targeting]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2015, no. 9, pp. 124–135. (In Russian)
Gref G. Ekonomicheskii krizis i perspektivy rossiiskoi ekonomiki [Economic Crisis and Prospects of the Russian Economy]. Ekonomicheskaia politika [Economic Policy], 2009, no. 6, pp. 20–29. (In Russian)
Grigor’ev L., Salikhov M. Finansovyi krizis-2008: vkhozhdenie v mirovuiu retsessiiu [Financial crisis-2008: entry into the global recession]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2008, no. 12, pp. 27–45. (In Russian)
Gurvich E. T. Istochniki rossiiskogo finansovogo krizisa [The Origins of the Russian Financial Crisis]. Zhurnal Novoi ekonomicheskoi assotsiatsii [The Journal of the New Economic Association], 2009, no. 1-2, pp. 230–232. (In Russian)
Iudaeva K., Godunova M. Uroki krizisa dlia Rossii: makroekonomicheskaia politika [Crisis’s Lessons for Russia: Macroeconomic Policy]. Ekonomicheskaia politika [Economic Policy], 2009, no. 6, pp. 30–41. (In Russian)
Klepach A. N. Uroki sovremennykh krizisov dlia ekonomicheskogo razvitiia Rossii [Lessons from Modern Crisis for Economic Development in Russia]. Zhurnal Novoi ekonomicheskoi assotsiatsii [The Journal of the New Economic Association], 2015, no. 2 (26), pp. 210–218. (In Russian)
Kudrin A. Mirovoi finansovyi krizis i ego vliianie na Rossiiu [Global financial crisis and its impact on Russia]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2009, no. 1, pp. 9–27. (In Russian)
Lushin V. Reaktsiia na krizis i ee posledstviia dlia real’nogo sektora rossiiskoi ekonomiki [Reaction to the crisis and its consequences for the real sector of the Russian economy]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2011, no. 1, pp. 39–50. (In Russian)
Mau V. Drama 2008 goda: ot ekonomicheskogo chuda k ekonomicheskomu krizisu [Drama of 2008: from an economic miracle to an economic crisis]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2009, no. 2, pp. 4–23. (In Russian)
Mau V. Politicheskaia priroda i uroki finansovogo krizisa [Political nature and lessons of the financial crisis]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 1998, no. 112, pp. 4–19. (In Russian)
Mau V. A. Uroki stabilizatsii i perspektivy rosta: ekonomicheskaia politika Rossii v 2016 godu [The lessons of stabilization and prospects of growth: Russia’s economic policy in 2016]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2017, no. 2, pp. 5–29. (In Russian)
Mironov V. V. Vozdeistvie ekonomicheskogo krizisa na real’nyi sektor ekonomiki Rossii [Influence of the World Economic Crisis on the Real Sector of the Russian Economy]. Zhurnal Novoi ekonomicheskoi assotsiatsii [The Journal of the New Economic Association], 2009, no. 3–4, pp. 216–225. (In Russian)
Navoi A. Rossiiskie krizisy obraztsa 1998 i 2008 godov: naidi 10 otlichii [Russian crises of the 1998 and 2008: find 10 differences]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2009, no. 2, pp. 24–38. (In Russian)
Nekipelov A. Krizis v Rossii: logika razvitiia i varianty ekonomicheskoi politiki [Crisis in Russia: Logic of Development and Alternatives of Economic Policy]. Obshchestvo i ekonomika [Society and Economics], 2009, no. 8–9, pp. 5–21. (In Russian)
Rapoport G., Gerts A. Global’nyi ekonomicheskii krizis 2008–2009: istoki i prichiny [The global economic crisis 2008–2009: origins and causes]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2009, no. 11, pp. 18–31. (In Russian)
Riazanov V. T. Keinsianskaia ekonomicheskaia teoriia i politika: vozmozhnosti i ogranicheniia na sovremennom etape [Keynes’ Economic Theory and the Politics: Possibilities and Limitations in the Present Stage]. St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies, 2016, no. 2, pp. 3–26. (In Russian)
Shastitko A. Mirovoi finansovyi krizis — vozmozhnost’ dlia remonta institutov? [The global financial crisis — an opportunity to repair institutions?]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2008, no. 12, pp. 133–138. (In Russian)
Sinel’nikov-Murylev S. G., Arkhipov S. A., Drobyshevskii S. M., Batkibekov S. B., Trunin I. V. Krizis finansovoi sistemy Rossii: osnovnye faktory i ekonomicheskaia politika [The crisis of Russia’s financial system: the main factors and economic policy]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 1998, no. 11, pp. 36–64. (In Russian)
Sinel’nikov-Murylev S., Drobyshevskii S., Kazakova M. Dekompozitsiia tempov rosta VVP Rossii v 1999– 2014 godakh [Decomposition of Russian GDP Growth Rates in 1999–2014]. Ekonomicheskaia politika [Economic Policy], 2014, no. 5, pp. 7–37. (In Russian)
Smirnov C. Faktory tsiklicheskoi uiazvimosti rossiiskoi ekonomiki [Factors of cyclical vulnerability of the Russian economy]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2010, no. 6, pp. 44–68. (In Russian)
Vakulenko E. S., Gurvich E. T. Gibkost’ real’noi zarabotnoi platy v Rossii: sravnitel’nyi analiz [Real Wage Flexibility in Russia: Comparative Analysis]. Zhurnal Novoi ekonomicheskoi assotsiatsii [The Journal of the New Economic Association], 2016, no. 3 (31), pp. 67–92. (In Russian)
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Published
2018-03-30
How to Cite
Лякин, А. Н. (2018). Three crises in the Russian economy and one chain of events. St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies, 34(1), 004–025. https://doi.org/10.21638/11701/spbu05.2018.101
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Macro and Microeconomic Research
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Articles of the St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies are open access distributed under the terms of the License Agreement with Saint Petersburg State University, which permits to the authors unrestricted distribution and self-archiving free of charge.
