Problems And Prospects Of Russia’s Economic Growth

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21638/11701/spbu05.2017.103

Abstract

This article examines the patterns of economic growth in Russia. It demonstrates that while the discussions focus on the problems of the short-term growth and the incentives therefor, the growth problems are more important in the long-term perspective. The article evaluates the future growth potential of Russia under various assumptions within the framework of standard methods of economic growth prediction. If the current tendencies persist, the next two decades will show a considerably lower growth of the GDP of Russia than within the previous 15 years, due primarily to the sharp decrease in the availability of labor. Besides, the better part of the potential for the increase in productivity is already exhausted. The growth of the GDP of Russia will stay below two percent per annum.

Keywords:

growth of Russian economy, total factor productivity, demographics

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.
 

Author Biographies

Iikka Korhonen, Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT), PO Box 160, 00101 Helsinki, Finland

Dr. Sc. (Economics), Head of the Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)

Александр Николаевич Лякин, St. Petersburg State University, 7–9, Universitetskaya nab., St. Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation

Doctor of Economics, Professor

References

References

Altunjan A. G. Prioritety monetarnoi politiki v kontekste natsional’nyh interesov [Priorities of monetary policy in the context of national interests. Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. Series 5. Economics, 2015, issue 1, pp. 103–115. (in Russian)

Deryugina E., Ponomarenko A. A large Bayesian vector autoregression model for Russia. Bank of Russia. Working Paper Series N 1. March 2015. Available at: http://www.cbr.ru/eng/analytics/wps/wps_1.pdf (accessed: 03.08.2015). (in Russian)

Drobyshevskij S., Kazakova M., Sinel’nikov-Murylev S. Dekompoziciia tempov rosta VVP Rossii v 1999–2014 godah [Decomposition of Russian GDP Growth Rates in 1999–2014]. Economic policy, 2014, no. 5, pp. 7–37. (in Russian)

Eichengreen B., Park D., Shin K. Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap. NBER Working Paper № 18673. January 2013. Available at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18673.pdf (accessed: 03.02.2016).

Eichengreen B., Park D., Shin K. When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China. Asian Economic Papers, 2012, vol. 11(1), pp. 42–87.

Ershov M. V. Aktivnaia ekonomicheskaia politika: ochevidnaia neobhodimost’ I sushhestvuiushhie stereotypy [Active economical policy: a clear need and existing stereotypes]. Scientific papers the Free Economic Society, 2015, vol. 191, no. 2, pp. 40–47. (in Russian)

Gill I., Kharas H. An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth. World Bank, Washington DC, 2007. Available at: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTEASTASIAPACIFIC/Resources/226262-1158536715202/EA_Renaissance_full.pdf (accessed: 07.02.2016).

Glaz’ev S. Ju. Sanktsii SShA i politika Banka Rossii: dvoinoi udar po natsional’noi ekonomike [Sanctions of the USA and the Policy of Bank of Russia: double Blow to the National Economy]. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2014, no. 9, pp. 13–29. (in Russian)

Gorjunov E., Drobyshevskij S., Trunin P. Denezhno-kreditnaia politika Banka Rossii: strategiia i taktika [Monetary policy of bank of russia: strategy and tactics]. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2015, no. 4, pp. 53–85. (in Russian)

Grinberg R. S., Sorokin D. E. Kak perelomit’ skladyvaiushhiesia negativnye makro-trendy? [How to reverse the evolving negative macrotrends?]. Russian Economic Journal, 2014, no. 1, pp. 12–18. (in Russian)

Idrisov G., Sinel’nikov-Murylev S. Biudzhetnaia politika i ekonomicheskii rost [Budget Policy and Economic Growth]. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2013, no. 8, pp. 35–59. (in Russian)

Ivanter V. V. Politika ekonomicheskogo rosta kak glavnaia antikrizisnaia mera [Expansionary macroeconomic policy as a central anti-recessionary measure]. Scientific papers the Free Economic Society, 2015, vol. 190, no. 1, pp. 46–52. (in Russian)

Jankowska, A., Nagengast A. J., Perea J. R. The Product Space and the Middle Income Trap: Comparing Asian and Latin American Experiences. OECD Development Centre Working Paper (2012), no. 311. Available at: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/development/the-product-space-and-the-middle-incometrap_5k9909j2587g-en (accessed: 23.09.2015).

Kaitila V. GDP Growth in Russia — Different Capital Stock Series and the Terms of Trade. ETLA Working Papers, 2015, no. 28. Available at: https://www.etla.fi/wp-content/uploads/ETLA -Working-Papers-28.pdf (accessed: 27.06.2015).

Korhonen L. How fast can Russia grow? BOFIT Policy Brief, 2015, no. 10, pp. 1–13. Available at: https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/handle/123456789/13976 (accessed: 27.06.2015).

Kuboniwa, Masaaki. The Russian Growth Path and TFP Changes in Light of Estimation of the Production Function using Quarterly Data. Post-Communist Economies, 2011, vol. 23(3), pp. 311–325.

Kudrin A. L., Gurvich E. T. Government Stimulus or Economic Incentives? The Journal of the New Economic Association, 2015, no. 2, pp. 179–186.

Kudrin A., Gurvich E. A new growth model for the Russian economy. BOFIT Policy Brief 1/2015. Available at: https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/handle/123456789/13571 (accessed: 01.02.2016).

Labour and employment in Russia, 2001. Available at: http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/publications/catalog/doc_1139916801766 (accessed: 17.07.2016).

Mirkin Ja. M. Saving forcing. Expert — North-West, 2015, no. 48–49 (720). Available at: http://expert.ru/northwest/2015/49/spasitelnyij-forsazh/ (accessed: 01.02.2016).

Rautava J. Oil Prices, Excess Uncertainty and Trend Growth — A Forecasting Model for Russia’s Economy. Focus on European Economic Integration Q4/13, Oesterreichische Nationalbank. Available at: http://regconf.hse.ru/uploads/1723ca51a1c164ad4c2d590967c5d1836ebd3987.pdf (accessed: 21.05.2016).

Rodrik D. Do Low-Income Countries have a High-Wage Option? NBER Working Papers, 1993, no. 4451. Available at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w4451 (accessed: 01.06.2016).

Uljukaev A., Mau V. From Economic Crisis to Economic Growth, or how to Prevent the Crisis from Turning into Stagnation. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2015, no. 4, pp. 53–85.

Voskobojnikov I. B., Gimpel’son V. E. Productivity Growth, Structural Change and Informality: The Case of Russia. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2015, no. 11, pp. 30–61.

Voskoboynikov I., Solanko L. When high growth is not enough: Rethinking Russia’s pre-crisis economic performance. BOFIT Policy Brief 6/2014. Available at: https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/handle/123456789/12747 (accessed: 11.09.2015).

Downloads

Published

2017-03-30

How to Cite

Korhonen, I., & Лякин, А. Н. (2017). Problems And Prospects Of Russia’s Economic Growth. St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies, 33(1), 036–050. https://doi.org/10.21638/11701/spbu05.2017.103

Issue

Section

Macroeconomic research