Capital markets and perceptions of sectoral sensitivity to COVID-19

Збигнев  Корзеб; Павел Недзиолка; Дмитрий Панков

doi:10.21638/spbu05.2021.305

Авторы

Збигнев Корзеб Бeлостокский технический унивeрситeт https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9690-3842
Павел Недзиолка Варшавская школа экономики https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1659-7310
Дмитрий Панков Белорусский государственный экономический университет

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2021.305

Аннотация

Авторами статьи проведен анализ показателей отраслевых субиндексов на обозримом отрезке времени пандемии COVID-19, реализованный на основе оценки динамики норм доходности 247 отраслевых индексов из 15 европейских стран в 2020 г. Исследованы различия между достигнутыми нормами доходности промышленности и основными фондовыми индексами во всех исследуемых странах. Кроме того, была рассчитана волатильность отдельных отраслевых индексов. Результаты проведенного исследования позволяют сделать следующие выводы. Во-первых, туризм, нефтегазовый и финансовый сектор относятся к числу отраслей, которые инвесторы считают наиболее уязвимыми для COVID-19. Во-вторых, необходимость перевода бизнеса в Интернет, а также ускорение (отчасти вынужденное) цифровой трансформации бизнеса являются предпосылками для принятия инвесторами решений об увеличении доли технологических компаний в своих портфелях. С другой стороны, растущая неопределенность влияет на работу поставщиков продовольствия и других предметов первой необходимости. Из-за административных ограничений, наложенных на туристическую и пассажирскую транспортную деятельность, спрос на товары для отдыха быстро возрос, что отразилось на результатах и котировках предприятий, ответственных за их производство. Пандемический кризис, вопреки наблюдавшимся в 1-м квартале 2020 г. симптомам и ожиданиям аналитиков, не оказал негативного влияния на промышленное производство. В-третьих, в целом поведение инвесторов на российском рынке было аналогично поведению инвесторов в других исследуемых экономиках. Однако по трем подсекторам экономики реакция инвесторов была разной.

Ключевые слова:

COVID-19, рынки капитала, секторный риск

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Библиографические ссылки

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