Constructing of Economic Development Trajectories by Approximating Conditions of Stochastic Models of Economic Growth

Authors

  • Алексей Владимирович Воронцовский St. Petersburg State University, 7–9, Universitetskaya nab., St. Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6473-1951
  • Людмила Федоровна Вьюненко St. Petersburg State University, 7–9, Universitetskaya nab., St. Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9741-3949

Abstract

The article deals with the opportunities of building estimated trajectories of macroeconomic indicators obtained in simulations based on discrete approximation of conditions of stochastic economic growth models. Conditions for the stochastic growth model are formulated. Calculations made under simulation on conditional examples show that, fi rst, in the absence of random variables it is possible to construct approximate trajectories of macroeconomic indicators changing their trends for a certain period; second, construction of approximate trajectories based on increments of the Wiener process in simulation mode can ensure stability of average realized trajectories of macroeconomic indicators changes. Using Scandinavian countries data, we show some correspondence between average realized trajectories and actual changes in GDP and consumption indicators; actual trajectory of macroeconomic indicators growth are allocated within 95% confidence interval determined by results of the simulation, that can be narrowed down when converting original equations of the model. The results obtained depend significantly on the circumstances of the stochastic growth model and require further analysis. Refs 37. Figs 12. Tables 3.

Keywords:

stochastic economic growth models, Wiener process increment, discrete approximation of stochastic growth model conditions, statistical modeling, calculated average growth trajectory of macroeconomic indicators, confi dence intervals, confidence intervals

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Author Biographies

Алексей Владимирович Воронцовский, St. Petersburg State University, 7–9, Universitetskaya nab., St. Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation

Doctor of Economics, Professor

Людмила Федоровна Вьюненко, St. Petersburg State University, 7–9, Universitetskaya nab., St. Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation

Candidate of Economics, Associate Professor

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Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Серия 5. Экономика. 2014. Вып. 3

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Published

2014-09-30

How to Cite

Воронцовский, А. В., & Вьюненко, Л. Ф. (2014). Constructing of Economic Development Trajectories by Approximating Conditions of Stochastic Models of Economic Growth. St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies, (3), 123–147. Retrieved from https://economicsjournal.spbu.ru/article/view/1901

Issue

No. 3 (2014)

Section

Mathematical models in economics

License

Articles of the St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies are open access distributed under the terms of the License Agreement with Saint Petersburg State University, which permits to the authors unrestricted distribution and self-archiving free of charge.

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