Event-trees with Randomized Probabilities and their Application to Forecasting of Evolution of Complex Financial-Economic Systems
Abstract
A new method of estimation of evolution variants probabilities for complex systems is developed, based on the conception of event-tree with randomized transition probabilities (ETRTP). A detailed description is given for an example of ETRTP-conception using for estimation of probability of country’s financial-economic crisis.
Keywords:
event trees
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Articles of the St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies are open access distributed under the terms of the License Agreement with Saint Petersburg State University, which permits to the authors unrestricted distribution and self-archiving free of charge.