On the methods of price fluctuations analysis in the art market
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2018.406Abstract
The present article is devoted to the price fluctuations analysis of the one of the most (if not the most) difficulty describing modern markets, namely, the art market. This would be done on the example of the trading with artworks of three specially selected masters — Camille Pissarro, Paul Cezanne and Rene Magritte. Thus, this survey, first, has a monographic character in relation to the markets of the required artists, identifying (1) the variation features in the sales of their works; (2) the factors affecting average prices and turnover of the monuments of the masters; (3) the regularities of changes over time of the consumer demand for the creative heritage of Pissarro, Cezanne and Magritte. Secondly, proceeding from the logic connection within one operation of the monographic data about absolutely different (for the period of life, belonging to the stylistic direction, painting technique etc.) authors, the comparative analysis of the processes typical for a phenomenon of purchase and sale of their works is carried out. For this purpose, receptions and methods of variation, correlation, factorial and dynamic analyses are used. The study concludes with an attempt to forecast the expected trends in the three masters markets, which, in turn, cannot fail to affect the whole set of trade operations with art, otherwise, the art market in general. As a result, the presented work has in parallel scientific, theoretical and purely applied results. Some fill the treasury of a new branch of the statistical disciplines, which designation is logically forms into the term “art statistics”, introduced into scientific circulation by this article; others can be applied by collectors and investors for making business decisions.
Keywords:
methods, artists’ markets, price fluctuations, variation analysis, correlation analysis, factorial analysis, dynamic analysis, forecasting
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References
Литература на русском языке
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Translation of references in Russian into English
Ashenfelter O. C., Graddy K. Sale Rates and Price Movements in Art Auctions. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, 2011, no. 16743, pp. 1–13.
Ashenfelter O. How Auctions Work for Wine and Art. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1989, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 23–36.
Ashenfelter O., Graddy K. Anatomy of the Rise and Fall of a Price-Fixing Conspiracy: Auctions at Sotheby’s and Christie’s. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, 2004, no. 10795, pp. 1–26.
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Guerzoni G. Reflections on Historical Series of Art Prices: Reitlinger’s Data Revisited. Journal of Cultural Economics, 1995, vol. 19, no. 3, pp. 251–260.
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Mei J., Moses M. Art as an Investment and the Underperformance of Masterpieces. American Economic Review, 2002, vol. 92, no. 5, pp. 1656–1668.
Perloff H. S. Using the Arts to Improve Life in the City. Journal of Cultural Economics, 1979, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 1–20.
Pesando J. E., Shum P. M. The Returns to Picasso’s Prints and to Traditional Financial Assets, 1977 to 1996. Journal of Cultural Economics, 1999, vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 183–192.
Pesando J. E., Shum P. M. The Law of One Price, Noise and “Irrational Exuberance”: The Auction Market for Picasso Prints. Journal of Cultural Economics, 2007, vol. 31, no. 4, pp. 263–277.
Rubinstein A., Baumol W., Baumol H. On the Economics of the Performing Arts in the Soviet Union and the USA: a Comparison of Data. Journal of Cultural Economics, 1992, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 1–23 (a).
Rubinstein A., Baumol W., Baumol H. On the Economics of the Performing Arts in the USSR and the USA: A Preliminary Comparison of the Data. Eds Towse R., Khakee A. Cultural Economics. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 1992 (b).
Rubinstein A. Y. Issues of Price and Subsidy in the Arts in The USSR. Journal of Cultural Economics, 1987, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 65–83.
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Schneider F., Pommerehne W. W. Analyzing the Market of Works of Contemporary Fine Arts: An Exploratory Study. Journal of Cultural Economics, 1983, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 41–67.
Scitovsky T. Culture is a Good Thing: A Welfare-Economic Judgment. Journal of Cultural Economics, 1989, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 1–16.
Scitovsky T. What’s Wrong with the Arts is What’s Wrong with Society. American Economic Review, 1972, vol. LXII, no. 2, pp. 62–69.
Singer L. P. Phenomenology and Economics of Art Markets: An Art Historical Perspective. Journal of Cultural Economics, 1988, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 27–40.
Sotheby’s. Available at: http://www.sothebys.com/ (accessed: 01.05.2018).
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Published
2019-02-11
How to Cite
Колычева, В. А. (2019). On the methods of price fluctuations analysis in the art market. St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies, 34(4), 591–618. https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2018.406
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Finance, Investments and Accounting
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Articles of the St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies are open access distributed under the terms of the License Agreement with Saint Petersburg State University, which permits to the authors unrestricted distribution and self-archiving free of charge.
