Прибыльные и убыточные арт-инвестиции: статистический анализ рентабельности

Валерия Андреевна Колычева

doi:10.21638/11701/spbu05.2017.407

Authors

Валерия Андреевна Колычева St. Petersburg State University, 7–9, Universitetskaya nab., St. Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0619-4523

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21638/11701/spbu05.2017.407

Abstract

The current article sets out to prove the existence of unconditional investment potential in objects of art. Only 14.8 % of monuments do not bring profit to their owners from resale, against a backdrop of an overwhelming share of works (85.2 %) that guarantee financial success to their collectors. It is on such “halves” that the world art market disintegrates, allowing us to look objectively and for the first time empirically to study aggregates previously not open to analysis: Profitable Repeat Sales and Unprofitable Repeat Sales. The antagonistic comparison of art investments presented in the study makes it possible to reveal a real paradox in the monuments market: the practically functional dependence between prices (first and later) on art in the rating of unprofitable works. How can a work sold at a higher price than it was purchased be on a list of unprofitable artistic value? We suggest the answer is in the collector’s losses due to transaction costs, which leads to additional analysis in the field of specific risks for this market. Our main conclusion is that confirmation of constant profitability of art (the nature of the connection is almost functional) given the free action of one variable, risky transactions; for accuracy of forecasting such transactions, scholars depend upon the probability of the appearance of an absolutely correct means for preserving and multiplying capital.

Keywords:

art market, works of art, profitability, variation analysis, correlation analysis

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Author Biography

Валерия Андреевна Колычева, St. Petersburg State University, 7–9, Universitetskaya nab., St. Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation

PhD of Economics, Associate Professor

References

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References in Latin Alphabet

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Translation of references in Russian into English

Agnello R. J. Investment Returns and Risk for Art: Evidence from Auctions of American Paintings. Eastern Economic Journal, 2002, vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 443–463.

Baumol W. J. Unnatural Value: Or Art Investment as Floating Grap Game. American Economic Review, 1986, vol. 76, no. 2, pp. 10–14.

Chanel O., Gerard-Varet L. A., Ginsburgh V. Prices and Returns on Paintings: An Exercise on How to Price the Priceless. Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, 1994, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 7–21.

Cosmopolitan Canvases. Th e Globalization of Markets for Contemporary Art. Eds. O. Veldhuis, S. B. Curioni. Oxford University Press, 2015. 320 p.

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Ekelund Jr. R. B., Ressler R. W., Watson J. K. The “Death-Effect” in Art Prices: A Demand-Side Exploration. Journal of Cultural Economics, 2000, vol. 24, no. 4, pp. 283–300.

Frey B. S., Eichenberger R. On the Return of Art Investment Return Analyses. Journal of Cultural Economics, 1995, vol. 19, no. 3, pp. 207–220.

Frey B. S., Pommerehne W. W. Art Investment: An Empirical Inquiry. Southern Economic Journal, 1989, vol. 56, no. 3, pp. 396–409.

Goetzmann W. N. Accounting for Taste: Art and the Financial Markets Over Three Centuries. American Economic Review, 1993, vol. 83, no. 5, pp. 1370–1376.

Highfill J., O’Brien K. Bidding and Prices for Online Art Auctions: Sofa Art or Investment. Journal of Cultural Economics, 2007, vol. 31, no. 4, pp. 279–292.

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Mei J., Moses M. Art as an Investment and the Underperformance of Masterpieces. American Economic Review, 2002, vol. 92, no. 5, pp. 1656–1668.

Pesando J. E., Shum P. M. The Law of One Price, Noise and “Irrational Exuberance”: The Auction Market for Picasso Prints. Journal of Cultural Economics, 2007, vol. 31, no. 4, pp. 263–277.

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Worthington A. C., Higgs H. Art as an Investment: Risk, Return and Portfolio Diversification in Major Painting Markets. Accounting and Finance, 2004, vol. 44, no. 2, pp. 257–271.